If you ask me what has changed most in Azerbaijan’s economy, I would point to one figure. President Aliyev said it himself this June: the non-oil and gas sector now makes up more than 70% of Azerbaijan’s GDP. Our Minister of Economy put the exact number at 71.5%.
But in the same speech, President Aliyev pointed to the number that matters just as much: the vast majority of what we export is still energy resources. By the end of 2025, oil and gas made up more than 85% of total exports, with non-oil products at around 14.5%. That matters. When an economy depends this much on oil, it feels every swing in prices. Diversification is what makes economic growth last, and that is the reason behind the government’s push into new sectors.
So which is it – diversified economy, or oil economy? Right now, both. The domestic economy has genuinely diversified. The export structure has not caught up yet. That gap – between what we produce for ourselves and what we sell to the world – is where the real work lies.
What I find promising is that the export side is finally starting to move too. Non-oil exports rose 13% in the first four months of this year, spread across fruit, vegetables, tea, aluminium and a fast-growing food processing sector. Sugar exports alone reportedly quadrupled in early 2026 versus the year before.
In particular, I see three sectors moving at once, each following its own growth logic.
Agriculture
Agriculture sits at the centre of that shift, both as an export line and as a livelihood. Azerbaijan’s Agriculture Minister said this May that almost 50% of employment outside Baku comes from agriculture. That is a huge share of the country’s working population depending on a sector that is only now beginning to modernise its processing and export infrastructure.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing is moving on the same track. The “Made in Azerbaijan” brand, launched by presidential decree in 2016, keeps expanding – Azerbaijani industrial products now reach more than 70 countries, with recent entries into South Africa, Yemen and Argentina. Government backing for exporters has grown alongside it, with more companies each year selected to represent Azerbaijan at international trade fairs. The idea behind it is simple: help manufacturers think about export markets from day one, rather than treating them as an afterthought.
Technology
Then there is the digital layer. A state-run Innovation and Digital Development Agency now runs techno parks, accelerators and startup programmes nationwide. Azerbaijan already counts more than 200 active startups, targeting 500 by 2026, backed by the country’s first domestic venture capital funds. A new 20-hectare tech park, SABAH City, is being built as the next hub for this ecosystem.
These are three different sectors, three different ways of growing, all happening together. To me, that feels stronger and more lasting than putting everything into one big, flashy project. A mega-project can grab attention quickly and it makes for a good headline. But building a wide base of industries takes more time, and once it is built, it is much harder to shake. It can survive setbacks that would sink a single big bet – and that is exactly what gives me confidence in where Azerbaijan’s economy is heading.
The 70% figure tells me diversification has already happened inside the economy. Whether the export numbers catch up – that is the part I am still watching.
